Crises of the second type are more dangerous
There they were due to changes makrouslovy, such as laws, different standards, requirements for capital, access to foreigners, etc. etc. (Here, while fundamental changes are not planned.) This is also the exchange rates and prices of securities. But in the coming year, the dollar probably will fall against other currencies, than to grow, and that the banks and the State in the plus, but not at the expense, since a significant portion of borrowing - in dollars. Part of the Central Bank reserves and the Stabilization available in dollar-denominated assets are also depreciated, but the banks' public debt is not directly affected. Of course, a major global risk - this is the price of oil. If they decline, then decrease the amount of foreign exchange earnings in Russia - the dollar to the ruble will start to rise, the budget deficit is found, the population and legal persons (nefteeksporterov, metallurgy and so on) to drastically reduce the income, some will have difficulty in paying loans, and - this is in many banks - the rates popolzut up. Against this backdrop, the problem is likely. But until the Central Bank reserves sufficient to address the issues of this kind. Currently in Russia the level of volatility is low. Do CB enough resources to treat and compensate for even higher levels. And the Central Bank regularly carries out preventive work - the increase in the amount of deposit, insured in the insurance of individual deposits in the coming year is likely to be enacted on the irrevocable deposit. On the situation may affect rumors. We should not forget how critical importance to the banking system have a means to the people - their share of the liabilities of banks up to 30% higher than the means of legal persons. Organized people save an important source of financing of the economy as a whole. The slowdown in the inflow of savings into investments, not to mention the outflow will have a negative result for the whole economy. However, in the next year or two, is believed by experts, possible rumors and rumors remain, and bank deposits, albeit low, but a reliable source of multiplying means. Experts also do not see in the next year or two, any threat to bank deposits. At the same time, the distant future of bank deposits is not yet so clear. "Basic needs of private individuals is, first of all - saving resources, and to date the deposit - this is in fact the only fixed income, high liquidity and the necessary reliability. - Head of Department considers the development of the deposit and commission products - You can predict that the development of collective and individual forms of investment in capital market does not significantly affect the volume of deposits of individuals and banks in 2007, but in the longer perspective, these factors may contribute to drain from the banks of the most significant liabilities - "Long laundering", ie deposits for a period of 1 year and more ". "Alternative ways of investing for the majority of clients are unavailable for various reasons .- commented situation, - If we talk about real estate, because of its high cost, when viewed PIFy, it has not yet been able to understand many of the instrument and risking their own means ". But this is just yet. What mechanisms will enable banks to continue to attract more deposits and whether there are prerequisites to higher interest rates? is of the view that banks should build a dynamic and flexible management of its resource base. At the same time raising the rates on deposits are not only useless but may even harm the bank, because Bank at an average rate of attraction is much higher than the market simply will not be able to remain competitive in the credit market with its stable trend of reducing the cost of credit. Economist offers on this issue its decision. He believes that the withdrawal of market-mixed products such as structured / index of deposits, the development of multi-inputs and depersonalized metal accounts would allow banks to not only retain existing customers means, but also attract new ones.
Continued